Climate-adaptive rice farming in flood-prone croplands across the United States

Global climate change has intensified the severity and frequency of flooding in the United States, which poses a significant threat to agriculture. Rice farming in floodplains presents a sustainable means to mitigate these impacts as it withstands warmer temperatures and reduces the risk of flooding. However, its potential suitability across the US has yet to be examined. This study evaluates rice farming suitability in the US by integrating satellite remote sensing, geospatial analysis, and multi-criteria decision approaches. We generate rice suitability maps by considering factors such as climate, soil, topography, and infrastructure, including temperature and growing degree days. We then overlap the suitability maps with historical flooding and land use database to identify the most suitable regions for rice farming in US. The results indicate that over 24% of the land is moderately or highly suitable for rice farming (mainly in regions between 70-105°W and 35-45°N). From 2000 to 2018, 95,500 km² of cropland was affected by flooding, accounting for 30% of the total flooding area. Among these flooded croplands, we identify 1.57 km² (0.002%) as highly suitable (S1), 51,726 km² (54%) as moderately suitable (S2), and 43,777 km² (46%) as marginally suitable (S3) for rice farming. The most suitable areas are primarily located in California, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, and the Mississippi River Basin. Our methodology and findings provide evidence for promoting rice farming as a viable climate change adaptation strategy in the US.

Land suitability for rice farming in the continental United States. (a-d) highlight agricultural areas severely affected by flooding. The lower left panel displays the area and percentage of flooded croplands categorized by suitability: highly suitable (S1), moderately suitable (S2), marginally suitable (S3), and not suitable (N).

Reference: Ying Tu, Chuan Liao, Jenny Kao-Kniffin, and Matthew Reid. “Assessing the Suitability of Agricultural Floodplain Rice Farming as Adaptation to Climate Change in the United States.” AGU Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C, USA. December 2024.